The 2009 NBA Finals are now set. It's the Orlando Magic against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Orlando Magic were able to make it into the finals mostly be creating horrible matchup problems with the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers only had two guys big enough who could actually step out and defend one of their 6'10" three point shooters, and those were LeBron James and Joe Smith. Smith did not get a lot of playing time and James was only one man. With the Lakers it looks like it could be a similar number, only that this time you have two guys who are on the floor an awful lot in Pau Gasol and Trevor Ariza. The Magic still present a matchup problem for the Lakers, but the problem is not nearly as bad as it was for Cleveland.
There will be two major x-factors for the finals this season. The first is their three point shooting for the Magic. When they're making their three point shots, they generally win their games. When they aren't hitting them, they don't usually win their games. The next x-factor for this series is, of all people, Andrew Bynum. The young center is going to have a lot on his plate going up against Dwight Howard. If he gets into foul trouble early on in games, then it could be curtains for the Lakers. The Lakers without Bynum were as soft as they came last year in the finals against Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett. Nothing against Garnett, but it's more the versatility of his offense that makes him a threat. Now it's Dwight Howard down there, and if the Lakers put the same two guys up against him as they did last year to Perkins and Garnett, then the Lakers could seriously be in trouble. If the Magic are not hitting their three point shots, this is one thing that could keep them alive, as they could put Marcin Gortat on the floor with Howard, which has been proven to be a strong duo when they're looking to gain an advantage down low. Gasol and Odom will be way too soft to stop them.
Another major issue in this series, but not necessarily an x-factor is going to be Kobe Bryant. Last year in the finals Kobe did not have his best series. He had a couple of good games, but as a whole did not shoot the ball well and did not involve his teammates like he really could have. If the Lakers are going to win this series, then Kobe is going to have to step his game up a notch from last year. There is no doubt that Kobe has the ability to do it, and all things point at him being able to do it, but it actually being done is the important thing.
This is a very difficult series to predict. The Magic do present a lot of problems for the Lakers as far as matchups go, and if one x-factor isn't working, they at least can have another x-factor go their way and can still manage to have an advantage. However, there is a good chance that neither x-factor can go their way, and in that case they are in serious trouble. The Lakers are in the finals for a very good reason. They didn't steamroll over the west like predicted, but they were the best team in the west, easily. The Magic, on the other hand were arguably the best team in the east, but you could just as easily say that they made it to the finals based on matchup problems. However, these matchup problems still exist for the Lakers, so it isn't this is going to be a completely different beast for them.
The final prediction here is the Lakers in 7, although with all the different factors for each of these teams, it could be the Magic in 5 or the Lakers even in 4, it's just too hard to say for sure, but the advantage here is going to go to the Lakers.
(note, I hope I'm wrong)
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Draft Order Decided, Early Lottery Mock
With the NBA Draft Lottery taking place earlier tonight, this is the time to go ahead and put forth a mock of the lottery. This isn't as much of what the teams will actually do, as there are a lot of workouts that have to happen still, but it's what really makes the most sense for the teams in the lottery.
1. LA Clippers - Blake Griffin 6'10" 252 lbs. PF
Yes the Clippers do have Zach Randolph, but he has never translated into team success. In fact, teams have regularly been very poor when he has played for them. The reason for this is not only that he doesn't play defense, but that the man is a black hole on offense, and his percentages really are not even good enough for him to be that. Blake Griffin, on the other hand is a power forward with better height and athleticism than Randolph, but one that while not a great defender yet, at least plays with effort on the defensive end and has the athletic ability and strength to become a very good defender. Everyone knows what Griffin can do on the offensive end, although he really can do even more. Too many people underrate his jump shot, which out to about fifteen feet is nearly automatic. Griffin won't be a superstar right away, but he's going to be good off the bat, and the guy just has too strong of a work ethic, is too strong, is too athletic, and is too smart to not turn into a very good power forward in the future.
2. Memphis Grizzlies - Ricky Rubio 6'3" 180 lbs. PG
Rubio is the clear cut second best player in this year's draft. A future stud point guard, Rubio has all the skills to really help make everyone on a team better, and he's only eighteen years old. Memphis does have Mike Conley already, but so far he has not panned out as hoped, although he still has plenty of time. However, they should go ahead and maybe package Conley out of town and try to get a decent power forward in return and then just go ahead and draft Rubio here, he's too far ahead of those behind him to pass up on, much like Blake Griffin at the one spot.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Harden 6'5" 220 lbs. SG
This is where things start to get blurry and teams should start to draft based on team needs. The Thunder have two areas where they could improve. At shooting guard and at center. While Russell Westbrook does play more like a shooting guard than a point guard, he does have the skill to develop his game into more of a point guard style and let someone like Harden come in and take over at the two. Thabeet isn't anything more than a shot blocker right now, and the Thunder really have a chance to make some noise if they can get someone who can contribute more now rather than later, and Harden is very clearly NBA ready enough to come in and make a difference right away.
4. Sacramento Kings - Hasheem Thabeet 7'3" 265 lbs. C
They already have Spencer Hawes at center, but Thabeet is something different. Thabeet is that huge presence down low where Hawes is more of a high post center. This gives the Kings a versatile punch at the center spot and can also give them a nice rotation of big men with Jason Thompson as well. There is still some distance for Thabeet to go, as he will be a project, but he's also good enough that he'll be able to come in and at least provide some help almost right away.
5. Washington Wizards - Jordan Hill 6'10" 235 lbs. PF
Antawn Jamison is getting old, no one will deny that. Hill is going to be a bit of a project, little doubt about that. However, within a couple of years Hill will be ready to really compete at the NBA level while Jamison will be well into his decline. This just works too well for the Wizards in the future. Should be an interesting front line for the Wizards in the future with Hill and McGee as their four and five.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Brandon Jennings 6'1" 170 lbs. PG
Minnesota has several needs, but point guard is one of the biggest ones. Sebastian Telfair isn't a bad point guard, but you can really improve on him as far as starting goes. While Jennings still does have to prove himself, he's a guy who could potentially be a very good point guard. Recent reports say that he's improved his passing by leaps and bounds and really almost looks like a pass first point guard in Europe, which with the bigs that Minnesota has, is exactly what they need.
7. Golden State Warriors - DeMar DeRozan 6'6" 210 lbs. SG
At this point you don't pass up on a guy like DeRozan. Sure, there's some questions to him, but the guy has the through the roof potential and just overall skill to really become a star in the league. In Golden State he might wind up as more of a small forward type, but he'd fit in great with Golden State's uptempo style of play.
8. New York Knicks - Stephen Curry 6'1" 180 lbs. PG/SG
This is one where what teams are saying comes into play. Rumor has it that the Knicks have already guaranteed that if he's there, they'll draft him. Curry fits in well with the D'Antoni fast paced offensive style though. He's a great shooter who was only quieted in college when there were at least 3 people guarding him. In New York he has a chance to really put up some fast points.
9. Toronto Raptors - Wayne Ellington 6'5" 194 lbs. SG
Ellington has a great jump shot and is solid everywhere else. In Toronto he should fit in very well with the current roster and fit in well with the style of play as well.
10. Milwaukee Bucks - Jonny Flynn 6' 185 lbs. PG
The Bucks do have Ridnour and Sessions, but Ridnour doesn't play defense and Sessions is very inconsistent. They can likely trade away Sessions for something helpful elsewhere and use Flynn eventually as their starter. Ridnour makes a good backup, but also can step in for the time being until Flynn is ready. Flynn is a point guard who can come in and score, or he can distribute. On offense he's just tough to stop. On defense he is fairly undersized, but he's also pretty strong and can use that strength to his advantage.
11. New Jersey Nets - Earl Clark 6'10" 230 lbs. SF/PF
The Nets look pretty weak at small forward, which is the position that Clark is best suited to play. He's tall for a small forward, but he has the skillset for that position. He'll not only eventually be able to be a good small forward, but also create matchup problems for other teams.
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Gerald Henderson 6'4" 210 lbs. SG
Henderson will give the Bobcats a good option off the bench at the two. He's very athletic and pretty solid all over the board.
13. Indiana Pacers - Chase Budinger 6'7" 218 lbs. SG/SF
Budinger can give the Pacers a wing off the bench who can shoot the lights out and dazzle the fans with his athletic abilities. He doesn't dribble well or move very fast, but he has room to improve, and again, he can really shoot the lights out.
14. Phoenix Suns - Eric Maynor 6'3" 180 lbs. PG
This is a tough pick between Lawson and Maynor. While Lawson looks like he'll be a solid point guard who can wind up being a solid starter, Maynor is a bit more of a risk, but with a higher reward, as some scouts see him turning into a real star. It's no secret that with Nash showing his age more and more every year, the Suns are hoping to find someone to replace him in the future. They took a bit of a risk on Dragic last year, and while Dragic didn't have the best season, he did do some things rather well. However, just in case he doesn't work out, it's good to have someone else there, and if both of them look good, then it never hurts to be able to trade away a good point guard.
It's more than likely that this board will change by the next mock draft once we get closer to the actual draft. There will be an extra mock added to the usual 3 done, in fact there will probably be a lot of mocks posted before the draft or just changing positions.
1. LA Clippers - Blake Griffin 6'10" 252 lbs. PF
Yes the Clippers do have Zach Randolph, but he has never translated into team success. In fact, teams have regularly been very poor when he has played for them. The reason for this is not only that he doesn't play defense, but that the man is a black hole on offense, and his percentages really are not even good enough for him to be that. Blake Griffin, on the other hand is a power forward with better height and athleticism than Randolph, but one that while not a great defender yet, at least plays with effort on the defensive end and has the athletic ability and strength to become a very good defender. Everyone knows what Griffin can do on the offensive end, although he really can do even more. Too many people underrate his jump shot, which out to about fifteen feet is nearly automatic. Griffin won't be a superstar right away, but he's going to be good off the bat, and the guy just has too strong of a work ethic, is too strong, is too athletic, and is too smart to not turn into a very good power forward in the future.
2. Memphis Grizzlies - Ricky Rubio 6'3" 180 lbs. PG
Rubio is the clear cut second best player in this year's draft. A future stud point guard, Rubio has all the skills to really help make everyone on a team better, and he's only eighteen years old. Memphis does have Mike Conley already, but so far he has not panned out as hoped, although he still has plenty of time. However, they should go ahead and maybe package Conley out of town and try to get a decent power forward in return and then just go ahead and draft Rubio here, he's too far ahead of those behind him to pass up on, much like Blake Griffin at the one spot.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder - James Harden 6'5" 220 lbs. SG
This is where things start to get blurry and teams should start to draft based on team needs. The Thunder have two areas where they could improve. At shooting guard and at center. While Russell Westbrook does play more like a shooting guard than a point guard, he does have the skill to develop his game into more of a point guard style and let someone like Harden come in and take over at the two. Thabeet isn't anything more than a shot blocker right now, and the Thunder really have a chance to make some noise if they can get someone who can contribute more now rather than later, and Harden is very clearly NBA ready enough to come in and make a difference right away.
4. Sacramento Kings - Hasheem Thabeet 7'3" 265 lbs. C
They already have Spencer Hawes at center, but Thabeet is something different. Thabeet is that huge presence down low where Hawes is more of a high post center. This gives the Kings a versatile punch at the center spot and can also give them a nice rotation of big men with Jason Thompson as well. There is still some distance for Thabeet to go, as he will be a project, but he's also good enough that he'll be able to come in and at least provide some help almost right away.
5. Washington Wizards - Jordan Hill 6'10" 235 lbs. PF
Antawn Jamison is getting old, no one will deny that. Hill is going to be a bit of a project, little doubt about that. However, within a couple of years Hill will be ready to really compete at the NBA level while Jamison will be well into his decline. This just works too well for the Wizards in the future. Should be an interesting front line for the Wizards in the future with Hill and McGee as their four and five.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves - Brandon Jennings 6'1" 170 lbs. PG
Minnesota has several needs, but point guard is one of the biggest ones. Sebastian Telfair isn't a bad point guard, but you can really improve on him as far as starting goes. While Jennings still does have to prove himself, he's a guy who could potentially be a very good point guard. Recent reports say that he's improved his passing by leaps and bounds and really almost looks like a pass first point guard in Europe, which with the bigs that Minnesota has, is exactly what they need.
7. Golden State Warriors - DeMar DeRozan 6'6" 210 lbs. SG
At this point you don't pass up on a guy like DeRozan. Sure, there's some questions to him, but the guy has the through the roof potential and just overall skill to really become a star in the league. In Golden State he might wind up as more of a small forward type, but he'd fit in great with Golden State's uptempo style of play.
8. New York Knicks - Stephen Curry 6'1" 180 lbs. PG/SG
This is one where what teams are saying comes into play. Rumor has it that the Knicks have already guaranteed that if he's there, they'll draft him. Curry fits in well with the D'Antoni fast paced offensive style though. He's a great shooter who was only quieted in college when there were at least 3 people guarding him. In New York he has a chance to really put up some fast points.
9. Toronto Raptors - Wayne Ellington 6'5" 194 lbs. SG
Ellington has a great jump shot and is solid everywhere else. In Toronto he should fit in very well with the current roster and fit in well with the style of play as well.
10. Milwaukee Bucks - Jonny Flynn 6' 185 lbs. PG
The Bucks do have Ridnour and Sessions, but Ridnour doesn't play defense and Sessions is very inconsistent. They can likely trade away Sessions for something helpful elsewhere and use Flynn eventually as their starter. Ridnour makes a good backup, but also can step in for the time being until Flynn is ready. Flynn is a point guard who can come in and score, or he can distribute. On offense he's just tough to stop. On defense he is fairly undersized, but he's also pretty strong and can use that strength to his advantage.
11. New Jersey Nets - Earl Clark 6'10" 230 lbs. SF/PF
The Nets look pretty weak at small forward, which is the position that Clark is best suited to play. He's tall for a small forward, but he has the skillset for that position. He'll not only eventually be able to be a good small forward, but also create matchup problems for other teams.
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Gerald Henderson 6'4" 210 lbs. SG
Henderson will give the Bobcats a good option off the bench at the two. He's very athletic and pretty solid all over the board.
13. Indiana Pacers - Chase Budinger 6'7" 218 lbs. SG/SF
Budinger can give the Pacers a wing off the bench who can shoot the lights out and dazzle the fans with his athletic abilities. He doesn't dribble well or move very fast, but he has room to improve, and again, he can really shoot the lights out.
14. Phoenix Suns - Eric Maynor 6'3" 180 lbs. PG
This is a tough pick between Lawson and Maynor. While Lawson looks like he'll be a solid point guard who can wind up being a solid starter, Maynor is a bit more of a risk, but with a higher reward, as some scouts see him turning into a real star. It's no secret that with Nash showing his age more and more every year, the Suns are hoping to find someone to replace him in the future. They took a bit of a risk on Dragic last year, and while Dragic didn't have the best season, he did do some things rather well. However, just in case he doesn't work out, it's good to have someone else there, and if both of them look good, then it never hurts to be able to trade away a good point guard.
It's more than likely that this board will change by the next mock draft once we get closer to the actual draft. There will be an extra mock added to the usual 3 done, in fact there will probably be a lot of mocks posted before the draft or just changing positions.
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