Saturday, March 7, 2009

Looking at the Prospects for Next Year

Now that March Madness is quickly approaching it's time to take a look at some of the top players expected to be drafted and really start to throw out opinions about them.

This is going to be organized into three groups. The first one is big men, as we will have mainly centers and power forwards here. Some combo forwards would also fit into here as well. Next up is wing players, mainly the small forwards and shooting guards, and combo forwards who fit in here. Lastly we have the little men, the point guards and small combo guards. So here's the top ten from each of those groups as they'll be ranked here:

Big Men

1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. Jordan Hill
4. BJ Mullens
5. Greg Monroe
6. DeJuan Blair
7. Craig Brackins
8. Tyler Hansbrough
9. Patrick Patterson
10. Jeff Pendergraph

Wings

1. James Harden
2. Earl Clark
3. Al-Farouq Aminu
4. Chase Budinger
5. Demar DeRozan
6. Gerald Henderson
7. DaJuan Summers
8. Damion James
9. Sam Young
10. Terrance Williams

Little Men

1. Ricky Rubio
2. Jeff Teague
3. Brandon Jennings
4. Eric Maynor
5. Stephen Curry
6. Jonny Flynn
7. Patrick Mills
8. Willie Warren
9. Ty Lawson
10. Darren Collison

Now, for the long part, let's take a look at each of those players and see who's really the best for the NBA game.

Blake Griffin has put together one of the best sophomore seasons that I have ever had the pleasure of witnessing. He's both scoring and rebounding in huge numbers. However, can his game translate to the NBA? It's an easy yes. Not only is Griffin a very good scorer and rebounder, but he plays with a lot of energy, he's very athletic, and most importantly, he's a very smart player. There is nothing that he's bad at on the floor. The only things that are worries are his body control and his health. While he did miss time after the concussion, the health seems to no longer really be an issue, and his body control has improved greatly since his freshman year. Griffin is the first pick for almost any team in this draft and will be a future star.

Hasheem Thabeet has been watched for quite some time now. He came into UConn as a 7'3" project, and now after his third year he's really improved his game and has become a much more refined player. No, he isn't perfect yet, but on defense he is an absolute monster. When he's by the paint, no one dares try to enter. His timing on his shot blocking is very good, he's fairly athletic, and he's improved his quickness an awful lot since his freshman year. On offense he's still not someone who will demand much attention. Occasionally he could put the ball in the hoop, but he's nothing more than that. For an early lottery team lacking size down low he is a good pick.

Jordan Hill is compared by many to Chris Bosh, and as far as style, skillset, and appearance go, they're pretty right on with him. He's an offensive minded power forward with a decent post game and very good jump shot who is soft on defense. It's doubtful he'll be a player of the same calibur as Bosh, but he does look like he can still be a very good player. His defense is actually not terrible despite being soft. He is an early lottery pick for sure for any team who needs a good power forward.

BJ Mullens came into college with a world of hype around him, and like the past two seasons when centers came to Ohio State with a lot of hype around them, he has been terribly underused and likely has had a lot of his value killed because of that. However, this is a kid that could really become a very good big man. He's got great size, good post skills, and a nice jumper out to about fifteen feet. While he will obviously be a bit of a project, as all NBA big men tend to be, he will still be a good player right away.

Greg Monroe is kind of a combo big man. He could be either a center or a power forward at the NBA level. He's an athletic big man with a nice versatile offensive game. His strength and post skills could really use some work right now, and it really wouldn't hurt him to go back into college for another season to refine his game, which very well may happen. If he goes into the draft right now he's a late lottery pick.

Here's the toughest guy to analyze. There's a number of undersized big men who've been in the league in recent years. From guys like Anthony Mason, Charles Barkley, Jason Maxiell, Elton Brand, and Paul Millsap to guys like Danny Fortson, Mike Sweetney, and Lonny Baxter. There's been a lot of them and with mixed results. Blair is extra small though. At 6'6" he's as tall as a shooting guard or small forward, but he's got the extra girth at 287 lbs. He's only somewhat athletic, but he has a long wingspan. He puts up monster numbers in college, but that's not the pro's where he'll be even more undersized. Look for him to be a middle first round pick, as there is risk involved with drafting him.

Craig Brackins is more of a combo forward, but he's a bigger one who'll work out well as a power forward. His biggest downside is his strength and defense, but he has a versatile offensive game that features a very good jump shot. He could very well wind up in the lottery as it's really tough to say where he'll be picked.

Tyler Hansbrough is another big man with a game that's been great in college, but there's question as to how his game can translate to the NBA. The things that he has are his insane motor, he's got solid post skills, a solid jump shot, and he's got good strength. His downsides are his height, defense, and body control. His height really isn't all that small for a power forward, but he's slightly undersized. He'll likely fall to near the end of the first round though.

Jeff Pendergraph likely will not be picked until the second round, but he has a chance to be a real sleeper. He's got solid size for a power forward and solid fundamentals. He has what it takes to be a good player at the NBA level.

James Harden went from a very good college player last year to one of the top in the country. He does almost everything well. Kind of has scouting reports that remind me of Brandon Roy. Bottom line is that there is no way he isn't a top three pick without a GM getting fired.

Earl Clark is a big small forward with very good athleticism. He still needs to work on his jump shot, and is fairly raw as a whole, but he'll still be picked in the lottery.

Al-Farouq Aminu came into Wake Forest with a ton of hype around him. He's unbelievably raw, but also has a great amount of potential. Think of Luol Deng with more speed, which is where he will likely be when he's at his peak, which is actually something that seems pretty nice.

Chase Budinger is someone that no one seemed to see lasting three seasons in college. He's an unbelievably athletic wing who makes a big shooting guard and an average sized small forward. He's got a great jump shot, but can't really get to the basket due to his weak ball handling abilities. His defense is also very weak still. He should still be picked in the middle of the first round.

Demar DeRozan is another freshman that came in with a lot of hype around him, but he really hasn't been able to live up to the hype so far at USC. He's got all the physical tools to be a success, but he's very raw and is questionable if he's ready mentally. He really should stay in school for another year, but it's likely that he'll still go for the pros.

Gerald Henderson has gained great fame playing at Duke. He's a slightly undersized shooting guard. He does almost everything well and is very athletic. Look for him to be a lottery pick.

DaJuan Summers is yet another player that should probably stay in college for another year. He's played well at Georgetown and is yet another player that seems to be good at everything, but not great. He is still a little bit raw, which leads me to believe that he'll miss the lottery by a little bit if he enters the draft this season.

Damion James is a defensive small forward with a solid offensive game to compliment it. Very athletic and still a little bit raw, he could be a mid to late first round pick if he went into the draft this season.

Sam Young defines the Pittsburgh style of play. He's a shooting guard/small forward with a physical style of play. However, what he is now is likely what he'll be throughout his basketball career. He really doesn't seem to be a guy with a whole lot of potential. He's a late first round pick.

Terrence Williams rounds up the wing players. He's unbelievably athletic and very strong, but he has no jump shot at all. Late first round pick or early second round.

Ricky Rubio, if he does enter the draft this season (which he actually can do, as the rules for international players differ slightly to the rules for American players due to the schooling system), could possibly be a top 3 pick. He's got all the tools to make a great point guard and could wind up being a superstar in the NBA. He's easily a top of the lottery pick.

Jeff Teague has no defense and is clearly a project, but he's a point guard who could really be a star at the NBA level, loaded with potential. Possibly a top five pick, but not much below that.

Brandon Jennings has been able to get himself into the news throughout the last year. Instead of playing in college he went to Europe so he could get money to play basketball. Right there you have to question the kid's attitude. However, in Europe he hasn't had the best of times. Occasionally showing signs of greatness, he hasn't shown to be a very good shooter and more of a playground style of point guard. He'll still be an early to middle lottery pick.

Eric Maynor is solid all around. He's a late lottery pick who'll likely make a solid starting point guard or a good backup point guard, possibly even better.

Stephen Curry is by no means an NBA point guard. He's an undersized shooting guard, and while his numbers have fallen since the start of the season, the guy's getting triple teamed regularly, it's tough to score when you have that going on. The kid's an excellent shooter and should make a good scoring option off the bench, a microwave scorer type of guy. A middle first round pick.

Jonny Flynn hasn't got the press of many of the other guys, but this guy really can play and will be an excellent point guard at the NBA level. He'll likely be picked in the mid to late 20's, but should start off as a great backup point guard and eventually be running his own team.

Patrick Mills first really turned heads in the Olympics last season when he torched the American team. That right there showed that he can play at the professional level, but it's how well he can play and his small size that'll hurt him. At very least he's a very good backup point guard.

Willie Warren is a very good point guard at the college level and should be able to still be very good in the NBA. He could be as high as a middle first round pick.

Ty Lawson will likely move up in the draft based on his name and being able to play at North Carolina. However, he likely won't ever be much more than a good backup point guard, which is nice, but not great. Likely he'll be a late first round pick.

Darren Collison is the last guy I'll cover. He could've gone in last year and likely would've been a higher pick, but he'll still be drafted in the first round and will be a good backup point guard.



Okay, so now that we've got all that covered, it's time for the tournament to come and completely change everything around. When that happens, that will be covered as well.