Okay, a quick warning, this is another Bulls based post right here, so if you don't want to have anything to do with that, turn away right now.
This post is based on the fact that the Bulls have finished their circus trip, which is usually a point in the season when things seem to fall apart, with a 3-4 record. The last time they finished with a similar record during this trip is when they went 3-3 during the '05/'06 season when they finished at 41-41. I must remind everyone that they went through a tough season that year, including an 8 game losing streak, but they were a playoff team that really grabbed the attention of a lot of teams at the time. Outside of that, the team's been embarassed by this Circus Trip.
The big difference that I see this year is that the Bulls have a go to guy. Derrick Rose simply has the passion and motivation to not let the team lose. This was seen by Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, and Chris Duhon during that miracle '04/'05 season (which carried on for two years after that), but with Rose it's different in that Rose is showing signs of being an elite player. The other guys knew they were good, but Rose knows that he can control a game. He knows that he's the difference in games, he knows that he can take a team as far as he wills them to. Well, at least he thinks he can, which is more than enough. The problem with guys like Deng is that he knows his limitations, and while he often won't try to play too far above them, he also won't try to beat what he thinks he can do. He doesn't have that passion to play above himself. However, that can change with a guy like Rose as well.
Tonight Derrick Rose showed why he was picked above Michael Beasley. His block, his ankle breaker, and his alley-oop were all the things that stars are made of. However, Rose played above the highlights. He put together a game where he scored 18 points and dished out 10 assists on top of his 5 rebounds. He shot the ball well, scoring efficiently, and his teammates actually suddenly started to make some of the shots he set them up for. I can only hope that this is a sign of things to come.
This leads me into what I'm really looking to talk about. What does this mean to Bulls fans? The last time they finished close to this on this road trip they barely made it into the playoffs. However, once in, they showed that they were more than worthy of being there. At worst, this means that Rose will hit the rookie wall and the other players will start to find their game at the time they start to figure everything out...well, it could be worse than that, but that's what I predict. This will lead the Bulls into a tough 20 game stretch or so, but it won't kill the team off or anything like that. Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni, Ben Gordon, and Larry Hughes (yeah, can't believe I'm saying that) have no excust for letting this team fall off if Rose hits that rookie wall.
This means that the Bulls should be a playoff team this year. Even after the horrid Circus Road Trip they are right there in contention. They have another 6 game road trip to go through pretty soon before another 4 gamer after that one. Looking at that, this is a team that can at least will itself into the playoffs. If they don't make it, at least it will be close. However, once they get there, if they do, I can't tell you how it'll wind up, although I don't see any team outside of the Celtics or Cavs being able to sweep them right now.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Taking Advantage of the Situation
The talk about the free agent class of 2010 is already in full force, and I am really getting sick of it already. This next year and a half needs to go by much more quickly or else I may lose it. However, this post is actually to talk about that summer and the free agent class. However, it's an idea for teams that don't have as good of a chance to land any of the huge name guys (Bosh, LeBron, and Wade are the main ones).
There's a lot of teams that are doing everything they can to clear out cap room for the 2010 offseason, and players with contracts that expire before then are starting to become much more valuable while players with contracts that expire after then are less valuable than they really should be. Of course once that summer goes by their value will go back up to where it should be.
So, for the teams that have some contracts that will expire by 2010 and are not the types of teams to draw in the big names through free agency, I say go ahead and try to trade away some of those players with contracts that expire by 2010 for some of those guys with contracts that go beyond 2010. If you're not going to be able to get any of the huge names, then why not at least try to get something out of this mayhem.
The teams that have the best chance at landing LeBron based on market and just being places where he would want to go are New York, Cleveland, Chicago, and the Lakers. I'm sure there's plenty of other places that he would consider going, but those are the three largest market teams right there (Clippers don't really count), and of course Cleveland since they're his hometown team and it's his current team. The Knicks are already in a position to offer him a huge contract, and while the Cavs will have some cap room as well, they really don't need it to resign their own player. The Lakers, however, do have Pau Gasol eating up nearly $18 million as well as Sasha Vujacic and Luke Walton eating up about a combined $11 million. Vladimir Radmanovic also has an option for about $7 million. Add all that up and you could get $36 million off of their books for the summer of 2010. They still have Kobe and Bynum eating up a lot of money during that summer, and who knows, maybe they'll be willing to trade Kobe. Bryant is getting into his thirties, but he's also still an elite player. However, the chance of getting a younger guy who's starting to eclipse Kobe in LeBron may be enough to get the Lakers to trade away Kobe for good players with contracts that expire by the summer of 2010 (provided they're not complete scrubs either). Who knows, you might be able to trade for Kobe at a bargain, but I really wouldn't count on that.
I'm not going to go into Wade or Bosh, but I think you guys get the idea. Some teams with large contracts that expire by 2010 include Houston (T-Mac alone is around $23 million), Milwaukee (Redd very well could opt out), and Miami (Wade, of course (even if they do want to bring him back), but Haslem, Blount, and Marion will all be gone by then as well).
I know that the teams aren't going to be able to get any superstars (for the most part) or anything like that for their contracts that expire by 2010, but they could get some very good players, possibly borderline all-stars. It's also a good idea for teams that are looking to surround good young players with some good veteran players. The Bulls (of course I pick my team), for instance have Derrick Rose with a bunch of guys that don't know how to play along with him. They also have Larry Hughes, Ben Gordon, and Drew Gooden, who combine for about $27 million that will be off the books by the 2010 summer. If they decide that they're not going to make a run at LeBron, Wade, or Bosh, then they could trade those guys away and probably get more than their value for them. There's also guys like Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha, who will combine for about $7.5 million for that summer as well who will also be able to be let go of at that time.
For me, this just seems like a great move for a lot of teams out there to make if they have enough contracts that expire by that time.
There's a lot of teams that are doing everything they can to clear out cap room for the 2010 offseason, and players with contracts that expire before then are starting to become much more valuable while players with contracts that expire after then are less valuable than they really should be. Of course once that summer goes by their value will go back up to where it should be.
So, for the teams that have some contracts that will expire by 2010 and are not the types of teams to draw in the big names through free agency, I say go ahead and try to trade away some of those players with contracts that expire by 2010 for some of those guys with contracts that go beyond 2010. If you're not going to be able to get any of the huge names, then why not at least try to get something out of this mayhem.
The teams that have the best chance at landing LeBron based on market and just being places where he would want to go are New York, Cleveland, Chicago, and the Lakers. I'm sure there's plenty of other places that he would consider going, but those are the three largest market teams right there (Clippers don't really count), and of course Cleveland since they're his hometown team and it's his current team. The Knicks are already in a position to offer him a huge contract, and while the Cavs will have some cap room as well, they really don't need it to resign their own player. The Lakers, however, do have Pau Gasol eating up nearly $18 million as well as Sasha Vujacic and Luke Walton eating up about a combined $11 million. Vladimir Radmanovic also has an option for about $7 million. Add all that up and you could get $36 million off of their books for the summer of 2010. They still have Kobe and Bynum eating up a lot of money during that summer, and who knows, maybe they'll be willing to trade Kobe. Bryant is getting into his thirties, but he's also still an elite player. However, the chance of getting a younger guy who's starting to eclipse Kobe in LeBron may be enough to get the Lakers to trade away Kobe for good players with contracts that expire by the summer of 2010 (provided they're not complete scrubs either). Who knows, you might be able to trade for Kobe at a bargain, but I really wouldn't count on that.
I'm not going to go into Wade or Bosh, but I think you guys get the idea. Some teams with large contracts that expire by 2010 include Houston (T-Mac alone is around $23 million), Milwaukee (Redd very well could opt out), and Miami (Wade, of course (even if they do want to bring him back), but Haslem, Blount, and Marion will all be gone by then as well).
I know that the teams aren't going to be able to get any superstars (for the most part) or anything like that for their contracts that expire by 2010, but they could get some very good players, possibly borderline all-stars. It's also a good idea for teams that are looking to surround good young players with some good veteran players. The Bulls (of course I pick my team), for instance have Derrick Rose with a bunch of guys that don't know how to play along with him. They also have Larry Hughes, Ben Gordon, and Drew Gooden, who combine for about $27 million that will be off the books by the 2010 summer. If they decide that they're not going to make a run at LeBron, Wade, or Bosh, then they could trade those guys away and probably get more than their value for them. There's also guys like Tyrus Thomas and Thabo Sefolosha, who will combine for about $7.5 million for that summer as well who will also be able to be let go of at that time.
For me, this just seems like a great move for a lot of teams out there to make if they have enough contracts that expire by that time.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Blow it all up!
I actually must be honest and say that I'm quite pleased with how the Bulls have played this year. They have come into the circus trip with a .500 record, and as expected they lost to the Lakers in a game where they at least never gave up and wound up only losing by seven. I think that they have played better than anyone has really expected them to play this season.
However, when they lost to Portland by forty-two points, my immediate reaction was to just give up on the whole season and hope for things to go well in the offseason again as far as the draft goes (Mullens would be a nice addition to this team). However, after thinking about things for a little while I realized that I was overreacting. The Bulls actually do have a lot of pieces that are or can be valuable. However, many of those guys may be more valuable in a trade.
So what I'm proposing here is that the Bulls trade as many of their assets as soon as they can and try to builder a stronger base for the team. Here's how I categorize the players on the roster. First you have the guys that I don't want on the team, guys that I don't feel are positives to the team or that I feel like the Bulls could get an awful lot for. Second you have the guys who I don't want to rush to the door, but I'd be fine if they were traded. Third you have guys that I would not like to see go, but could live with. Lastly you have the guys that are untouchable.
So for the first group I'm putting Larry Hughes and Ben Gordon in there.
With Larry Hughes it's that the guy wants to go. Sure, because of his contract he's going to be hard to trade, but the fact that it expires at the end of the 2010 season will draw in some potential suitors, especially with how good that free agent market will be that season. Hughes doesn't help the team out on the floor. He takes a lot of bad shots and takes a lot of bad risks. Sure, his risks also involve steals an awful lot, but when they allow easy shots just as often it's not something that really helps the team.
With Ben Gordon it's different. The guy has been helping the team out an awful lot when he's been hot. However, when he isn't hot he really doesn't help the team a lot. He takes a lot of bad shots just trying to get that stroke back, and it winds up hurting the team an awful lot. Even when he is hot he often over dribbles the ball, causing a turnover or a bad shot. However, due to his numbers being good for the start of the season, he's got trade value that may be higher than his actual production. However, he's going to have to keep those numbers up for a while, because they still can't trade him for a while due to having just signed him before the season started.
For the second group I have guys who get fewer minutes like Lindsey Hunter, Michael Ruffin, Demetris Nichols, and Cedric Simmons. I also have some guys who just haven't performed up to expectations or guys that may just serve better elsewhere. I don't necessarily dislike any of these guys, but I feel like they should go.
With Lindsey Hunter, Michael Ruffin, Demetris Nichols, and Cedric Simmons it's less of a matter of their play, but more that they just don't make any difference to the team. If they can be used to bring someone better than them to the team, then I'll be more than happy to see them go, although I believe we have to wait on Hunter and Ruffin due to them just being signed.
The next guy I'll mention is Kirk Hinrich. With Derrick Rose clearly ready to run the show now, Hinrich is expendable. The addition of Rose has severely cut into Hinrich's minutes, and with so many guards on the team, it may be time to let Hinrich go. However, trading Hinrich won't be something that can be done until around the trade deadline due to his injury. Still, he's clearly out of the plans for the Bulls right now but could be a very good addition to many other teams out there. His contract for this year is still fairly high, but it steadily decreases each of the rest of the years on it, eventually going all the way down to $8 million. That's really not a terrible contract to have, although it's more than he's been worth in the last 94 regular season games that the Bulls have played. However, he wasn't looking too bad this year despite a low scoring average, and if he was able to play somewhere else where he could be a valuable player, then he could once again be worth that contract.
Tyrus Thomas is another player who I wouldn't mind see going. Up through this last summer I wanted the Bulls to just hold on to him, but now I'm seeing that he likely isn't worth it. The guy can play some exciting defense and get some great blocks, but at the same time he's not making any of his shots and just isn't even close to living up to what they thought his potential was. However, I'm not saying that he's a lost cause. He could possibly be an impact player with the right guys around him. However, those right guys are not on the Bulls. If they trade him they could still likely get some solid value out of him, especially since he's still on a rookie contract.
Next up is my favorite player on the Bulls, Andres Nocioni. I think that the guy has a great attitude, he can spread the floor out, he plays as hard as he can at all times, no matter what the score is. So what is wrong with him? Well, while he's a good small forward, Luol Deng is still the more talented of the two and still has room to grow. We're seeing the best of what Andres Nocioni really has to offer. He's a player that would be tremendously popular wherever he'd go. I can't think of a team in the league who would not like to have him. He also has a contract that should not be hard at all to trade. For what they can get for him in combination with a couple of other pieces I'd say that it would hurt the team to not make a move like that.
Drew Gooden would be next, but only in combination with another big man. He's a solid player on offense and mediocre on defense. Right now that's the best that the Bulls have as far as big men go, and if they lost him they'd be in big trouble if they didn't get a big man in return. He has an expiring contract, which other teams would love to have, and he can be a solid player. I feel like he's another player that you can get a real good player for in return if he's traded in combination with other players.
Joakim Noah is another guy that I wouldn't mind seeing traded. He's a player who plays with a lot of energy and passion most of the time, but he's also a player whose dedication I really don't feel comfortable with. He needs to build his strength, but he did none of that during the offseason. Now he's back just as weak as he was last year and other team's bigs are really taking advantage of his weak body. I just don't see Noah ever topping off at a high level. In fact, I really don't see him ever being much better than he is right now. Since he's only in his second year and he's a fairly big name, I could see a team actually giving something up for him, but most likely he's going to be another piece in a larger deal if you do trade him.
The final player I'll name in this section is Aaron Gray. He's a huge body that looks to be getting better as time goes on. The only thing is that he's still not a whole lot. I doubt he'll ever go beyond being a good backup center, and he still has his limitations physically. There will likely be a team out there that will be willing to pick him up as part of a larger deal due to him actually having solid offensive ability.
Now it's time for the players that I don't want to see go, but it wouldn't be the end if they did go.
I'll start it off with Luol Deng. People have been hard on Luol Deng lately, but if they'd pay more attention they would realize that Deng has been playing pretty well over the last seven games. There were a couple of poor games in that span, but as a whole he has been performing well after his slow start. He's a player who still has further to go and more upside than we've seen so far. Of course the Bulls are also paying him too much, and on top of that, his contract is not one that will be easy to trade. However, while he's not a go to guy, he's still a guy who can make a huge difference as a second option. He can score at a good shooting percentage and he can rebound the ball well. I would like to see them keep with him, as he's too good to give away right now, especially for as little as they'd wind up with in return due to his contract.
Next up is Thabo Sefolosha. This is a strange one for me because I'm actually fairly frustrated with how he's developed mentally. The guy's physical gifts are all there. He's a good ball handler, he's got insane length, he's pretty athletic, and he's a good passer. Yeah, his shot is still a bit flat, but that can be fixed. However, it's that mental aspect that hasn't caught up to him yet, but I have a strong feeling that it will eventually come around, and when it does he could really become a good player.
Now, the final section, the untouchables.
Derrick Rose absolutely cannot be traded. It's pretty obvious, so I'll keep this short. He's the guy they're building this team around, and he's already shown that he has the talent to be an absolute star in this league. As a rookie he's putting up great numbers and has taken over games for short spurts on many occasions. He's the guy that they're going to have to build around.
Who do they trade for? I really couldn't tell you right now. Some of the things you want to look for are players that fill a need (in this case, a center or very good big man), someone who is a veteran (at least 5 or 6 years), and someone who is on a team that would be willing to give up an excellent player. Off the top of my head I'll admit that I cannot come up with anyone, but I've at least been able to give some characteristics of the player I would like. Names like Brad Miller come to mind, and he's a good center who will be cheaper to trade for mainly due to his age and the fact that Spencer Hawes is right there to take his place. However, a big just a few years younger and who is an even stronger down low presence would be ideal.
Obviously I don't want the Bulls to trade all of the guys that I mentioned wanting them to trade, but those are the guys who I would like to be used in order to get something to make the team better. If they can get at least one trade done, then it could be the difference between the playoffs and going back to the lottery.
However, when they lost to Portland by forty-two points, my immediate reaction was to just give up on the whole season and hope for things to go well in the offseason again as far as the draft goes (Mullens would be a nice addition to this team). However, after thinking about things for a little while I realized that I was overreacting. The Bulls actually do have a lot of pieces that are or can be valuable. However, many of those guys may be more valuable in a trade.
So what I'm proposing here is that the Bulls trade as many of their assets as soon as they can and try to builder a stronger base for the team. Here's how I categorize the players on the roster. First you have the guys that I don't want on the team, guys that I don't feel are positives to the team or that I feel like the Bulls could get an awful lot for. Second you have the guys who I don't want to rush to the door, but I'd be fine if they were traded. Third you have guys that I would not like to see go, but could live with. Lastly you have the guys that are untouchable.
So for the first group I'm putting Larry Hughes and Ben Gordon in there.
With Larry Hughes it's that the guy wants to go. Sure, because of his contract he's going to be hard to trade, but the fact that it expires at the end of the 2010 season will draw in some potential suitors, especially with how good that free agent market will be that season. Hughes doesn't help the team out on the floor. He takes a lot of bad shots and takes a lot of bad risks. Sure, his risks also involve steals an awful lot, but when they allow easy shots just as often it's not something that really helps the team.
With Ben Gordon it's different. The guy has been helping the team out an awful lot when he's been hot. However, when he isn't hot he really doesn't help the team a lot. He takes a lot of bad shots just trying to get that stroke back, and it winds up hurting the team an awful lot. Even when he is hot he often over dribbles the ball, causing a turnover or a bad shot. However, due to his numbers being good for the start of the season, he's got trade value that may be higher than his actual production. However, he's going to have to keep those numbers up for a while, because they still can't trade him for a while due to having just signed him before the season started.
For the second group I have guys who get fewer minutes like Lindsey Hunter, Michael Ruffin, Demetris Nichols, and Cedric Simmons. I also have some guys who just haven't performed up to expectations or guys that may just serve better elsewhere. I don't necessarily dislike any of these guys, but I feel like they should go.
With Lindsey Hunter, Michael Ruffin, Demetris Nichols, and Cedric Simmons it's less of a matter of their play, but more that they just don't make any difference to the team. If they can be used to bring someone better than them to the team, then I'll be more than happy to see them go, although I believe we have to wait on Hunter and Ruffin due to them just being signed.
The next guy I'll mention is Kirk Hinrich. With Derrick Rose clearly ready to run the show now, Hinrich is expendable. The addition of Rose has severely cut into Hinrich's minutes, and with so many guards on the team, it may be time to let Hinrich go. However, trading Hinrich won't be something that can be done until around the trade deadline due to his injury. Still, he's clearly out of the plans for the Bulls right now but could be a very good addition to many other teams out there. His contract for this year is still fairly high, but it steadily decreases each of the rest of the years on it, eventually going all the way down to $8 million. That's really not a terrible contract to have, although it's more than he's been worth in the last 94 regular season games that the Bulls have played. However, he wasn't looking too bad this year despite a low scoring average, and if he was able to play somewhere else where he could be a valuable player, then he could once again be worth that contract.
Tyrus Thomas is another player who I wouldn't mind see going. Up through this last summer I wanted the Bulls to just hold on to him, but now I'm seeing that he likely isn't worth it. The guy can play some exciting defense and get some great blocks, but at the same time he's not making any of his shots and just isn't even close to living up to what they thought his potential was. However, I'm not saying that he's a lost cause. He could possibly be an impact player with the right guys around him. However, those right guys are not on the Bulls. If they trade him they could still likely get some solid value out of him, especially since he's still on a rookie contract.
Next up is my favorite player on the Bulls, Andres Nocioni. I think that the guy has a great attitude, he can spread the floor out, he plays as hard as he can at all times, no matter what the score is. So what is wrong with him? Well, while he's a good small forward, Luol Deng is still the more talented of the two and still has room to grow. We're seeing the best of what Andres Nocioni really has to offer. He's a player that would be tremendously popular wherever he'd go. I can't think of a team in the league who would not like to have him. He also has a contract that should not be hard at all to trade. For what they can get for him in combination with a couple of other pieces I'd say that it would hurt the team to not make a move like that.
Drew Gooden would be next, but only in combination with another big man. He's a solid player on offense and mediocre on defense. Right now that's the best that the Bulls have as far as big men go, and if they lost him they'd be in big trouble if they didn't get a big man in return. He has an expiring contract, which other teams would love to have, and he can be a solid player. I feel like he's another player that you can get a real good player for in return if he's traded in combination with other players.
Joakim Noah is another guy that I wouldn't mind seeing traded. He's a player who plays with a lot of energy and passion most of the time, but he's also a player whose dedication I really don't feel comfortable with. He needs to build his strength, but he did none of that during the offseason. Now he's back just as weak as he was last year and other team's bigs are really taking advantage of his weak body. I just don't see Noah ever topping off at a high level. In fact, I really don't see him ever being much better than he is right now. Since he's only in his second year and he's a fairly big name, I could see a team actually giving something up for him, but most likely he's going to be another piece in a larger deal if you do trade him.
The final player I'll name in this section is Aaron Gray. He's a huge body that looks to be getting better as time goes on. The only thing is that he's still not a whole lot. I doubt he'll ever go beyond being a good backup center, and he still has his limitations physically. There will likely be a team out there that will be willing to pick him up as part of a larger deal due to him actually having solid offensive ability.
Now it's time for the players that I don't want to see go, but it wouldn't be the end if they did go.
I'll start it off with Luol Deng. People have been hard on Luol Deng lately, but if they'd pay more attention they would realize that Deng has been playing pretty well over the last seven games. There were a couple of poor games in that span, but as a whole he has been performing well after his slow start. He's a player who still has further to go and more upside than we've seen so far. Of course the Bulls are also paying him too much, and on top of that, his contract is not one that will be easy to trade. However, while he's not a go to guy, he's still a guy who can make a huge difference as a second option. He can score at a good shooting percentage and he can rebound the ball well. I would like to see them keep with him, as he's too good to give away right now, especially for as little as they'd wind up with in return due to his contract.
Next up is Thabo Sefolosha. This is a strange one for me because I'm actually fairly frustrated with how he's developed mentally. The guy's physical gifts are all there. He's a good ball handler, he's got insane length, he's pretty athletic, and he's a good passer. Yeah, his shot is still a bit flat, but that can be fixed. However, it's that mental aspect that hasn't caught up to him yet, but I have a strong feeling that it will eventually come around, and when it does he could really become a good player.
Now, the final section, the untouchables.
Derrick Rose absolutely cannot be traded. It's pretty obvious, so I'll keep this short. He's the guy they're building this team around, and he's already shown that he has the talent to be an absolute star in this league. As a rookie he's putting up great numbers and has taken over games for short spurts on many occasions. He's the guy that they're going to have to build around.
Who do they trade for? I really couldn't tell you right now. Some of the things you want to look for are players that fill a need (in this case, a center or very good big man), someone who is a veteran (at least 5 or 6 years), and someone who is on a team that would be willing to give up an excellent player. Off the top of my head I'll admit that I cannot come up with anyone, but I've at least been able to give some characteristics of the player I would like. Names like Brad Miller come to mind, and he's a good center who will be cheaper to trade for mainly due to his age and the fact that Spencer Hawes is right there to take his place. However, a big just a few years younger and who is an even stronger down low presence would be ideal.
Obviously I don't want the Bulls to trade all of the guys that I mentioned wanting them to trade, but those are the guys who I would like to be used in order to get something to make the team better. If they can get at least one trade done, then it could be the difference between the playoffs and going back to the lottery.
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